CovidSurg researchers have published a paper on ‘Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans’.

The paper, published in the British Journal of Surgery, projects that based on a 12-week period of peak disruption to hospital services due to COVID-19, 28.4 million elective surgeries worldwide will be cancelled or postponed in 2020. If countries increase their normal surgical volume by 20% post‐pandemic, it would take a median 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID‐19 disruption. The study concludes that governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to safely restore surgical activity.

The full paper is available here and an associated press release can be seen here.

The paper has received media coverage in The Economist and numerous other outlets across the world, some of which can be seen here.

Read about more CovidSurg outputs here.