CovidSurg Research Explained

The CovidSurg group aims to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on surgical patients and help surgeons and healthcare services adapt patient care to make it as safe as possible during and after the pandemic.

This page explains the CovidSurg research findings that are helping guide decisions for surgical patients and plan surgical services. The summaries in the dropdown boxes are designed to be accessible to patients, their families and the wider public audience.

The CovidSurg group has carried out two main ‘cohort’ studies tracking the outcomes of surgical patients. The first looked at patients diagnosed with COVID-19 around the time of their operation to understand their unique risks. The second is examining the outcomes for patients with cancer who have had surgery or should have had surgery if not for the pandemic. The team has also been assessing the influence of the pandemic on surgical services, including operation cancellations.

The findings of these studies are directly impacting on and informing patient health and surgical safety.

CovidSurg is committed to disseminating data quickly that can impact patient care. You can watch our Webinars here.

Planning for the Pandemic 

In March 2020, the CovidSurg group started work to identify evidence and experience from other surgeons in countries already affected by the coronavirus. They identified key actions that surgical services should take to minimise the impact and enhance safety during the pandemic. A Global Guidance document was published in the British Journal of Surgery.

Click here to access the full manuscript.

Context: In March 2020, surgeons worldwide urgently needed guidance on how to deliver surgical services safely and effectively during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Surgical teams needed to contribute to the COVID-19 response while continuing to care for emergency and urgent surgical patients. They needed to work with limited hospital beds, expect staff shortages and avoid the risks of in-hospital spread of the virus.

Aim: To identify key aspects of care, to safely deliver urgent surgery during the pandemic.

Strategy: First, searches were completed to find articles about management of surgical patients during pandemics. Second, surgeons and anaesthetists with first-hand pandemic experience were interviewed. Key challenges were identified and action plans proposed.

Impact: By gathering the best evidence and experiences, the study helps surgeons optimise care during the pandemic. This report helps surgical planning and promotes patient safety despite the challenging circumstances.

Results: The searches and interviews identified seven aspects of surgery that would need special attentions, to deliver safe surgery during the pandemic.

1. Planning for pandemics should be:

  • Part of routine planning at hospitals.
  • Led by a surgeon or anaesthetist with input from infection control experts.
  • Updated regularly according to international guidelines.
  • Rapidly activated when there is a pandemic threat, to quickly update hospital staff training.

2. Outpatient visits should be:

  • Replaced by telephone [or video] consultations where possible.
  • Postponed if care is non-urgent.
  • Undertaken at a specific date and time to minimise time spent in hospital, and ONLY when a physical visit for urgent diagnostic tests or care is essential.
  • Rescheduled if a patient displays symptoms of the pandemic illness.

3. Planned (Elective surgery) should be:

  • Reduced to free up beds and staff to care for pandemic patients and reduce the spread of infection.
  • Prioritised based on urgency and the risks to patients of any delay.
  • Modified to reduce operating times.
  • Postponed or if undertaken, keeping patients fully informed of benefits and risks.
  • Tracked so that the backlog of operations can be undertaken after the pandemic disease peak.

4. Cancer care should be:

  • Delivered carefully keeping in mind the risks of the disease worsening.
  • Continued as long as safely possible, according to hospital capacity.

5. Emergency surgical care should be:

  • Avoided where non-operative treatment is a reasonable option.
  • Undertaken with caution, due to the risks of complications and death if patients become infected with the virus. Only urgent, unavoidable surgery will go ahead.
  • Delivered by surgeons trained to
    • recognize possible COVID-19 infection.
    • test appropriately.
    • wear personal protective equipment to protect patients and themselves.
  • Delivered to patients with suspected or confirmed infection
    • in separate units.
    • with specific logistics planning for transfer between departments.
    • in an allocated operating theatre for COVID-19 positive patients.
  • Undertaken away from parts of the hospital caring for patients with COVID-19.

6. Patients with complications of COVID-19 after surgery should be:

  • Anticipated;
    • patients may have been in contact with the virus before, during or after their operation.
    • they may start showing symptoms while recovering.
    • they are more likely to become seriously ill if they get the virus.
  • Tested for the virus.
  • Isolated to stop virus spreading.
  • Cared for by specific team members.
  • Discharged home with clear instructions about how to avoid spreading the virus.

7. Surgical teams should:

  • Anticipate colleague sickness in their pandemic rotas.
  • Maintain social distancing.
  • Adopt teleconferencing in place of meetings.
  • Take into account colleagues at high risk who may need to shield, or with caring commitments.

Conclusion: Specific ‘pandemic-preparedness’ plans should be made in every hospital and regularly updated during any pandemic to best protect and care for surgical patients.

Having Surgery and Getting COVID-19

The first results from the ‘CovidSurg Cohort’ study, tracked the outcomes of surgical patients diagnosed with COVID-19 around the time of their operation. You can read a summary here of the first paper about death and breathing complications after surgery in patients infected with coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). The paper was published in The Lancet. It was a massive team effort.

Click here to access the full manuscript 

Context: A new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) appeared in late 2019, rapidly spread across the world and resulted in the COVID-19 pandemic declared by the World Health Organisation on 11th March 2020. Very little was known of the effects of the virus on surgical patients who are particularly vulnerable with risks from an operation as well as risks of infection with the virus.

Aims: To find out what happens to patients after an operation if they are infected with the virus either just before or in the first month after their operation. Specifically, we wanted to find out how many patients die after surgery, how many develop breathing complications, and identify key risk factors.

Impact: The rates of breathing complications and death associated with COVID-19 around the time of operation are important to help surgeons and patients make the safest treatment decisions.

Strategy: Surgeons from hospitals worldwide were invited to take part in this study. In 235 hospitals from 24 countries surgeons and researchers identified all patients who had an operation and tested positive for coronavirus around the time of surgery. Patients who were suspected to have the virus (but not tested) were also included as testing was not widely available in the early stages of the pandemic.

Team members collected anonymous patient data about age, gender, underlying illnesses and their operation. Patient records were followed up for 30 days after the operation. Researchers recorded if a patient had died or been diagnosed with one of three serious breathing problems: pneumonia (lung infection); unexpected ventilation (an artificial breathing machine); or acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS, where the lungs become badly inflamed and cannot provide the body with enough oxygen).


What did the study find?

1128 patients operated between 1 Jan and 31 March 2020 were included in the study. 53 percent of patients were men, and nearly 50% were 70 years or older. The majority of patients underwent emergency surgery (74%), and most had major operations (74%). About a quarter of patients had cancer surgery (24%).

· 268 of 1128 patients (23.8%) died within 30 days of their operation.
· Just over half of patients (51.2%) had serious breathing complications. In this group the death rate was much higher at 38%.
· With pneumonia, the death rate was 38%; those requiring unexpected ventilation had a death rate of 41% and in patients with ARDS, the death rate was 63%.

Who is at highest risk?

We identified patients and operation characteristics that increased patients’ risk of death. We found that male patients, age 70 years or over, those with underlying health problems; undergoing a ‘major’ operation, emergency surgery or cancer surgery all led to the higher risks of death.

What were the rates of serious breathing complications and death before the pandemic?

Patients with SARS-CoV-2 after an operation have overall, substantially higher rates of breathing problems and death than any studies have shown before the pandemic. A national audit in the UK (called ‘NELA’) looking at emergency abdominal surgery, showed 16.9% risk of death overall and 23.4% in frail patients >70years old. An international study (by GlobalSurg) in 58 low and middle-income countries showed 14.9% death rate in patients identified as high risk, after the same type of surgery. The death rates of patients with the virus after an operation are extremely high and similar to the death rates of the small group of severe COVID-19 patients who need intensive care.

Conclusion: The high risks of breathing complications and death have highlighted that surgical patients who contract coronavirus are particularly vulnerable. We recommend that surgeons ‘raise the threshold’ for surgery during the pandemic – surgeons should postpone operations or select non-operative management options where available. Furthermore strategies should be developed to reduce in-hospital SARS-CoV-2 transmission so minimising the risk of postoperative complications.

Operation Cancellations

The high rates of breathing complications and death identified among patients operated during the pandemic, who also caught the virus, supported early pandemic decisions to postpone elective surgery. However the risks of postponing tens and hundreds of thousands of operations are significant. To quantify the burden, the CovidSurg group published a modelling study in the British Journal of Surgery.

Click here to access the full manuscript.

Context: COVID-19 has led to worldwide disruption to surgical services. Cancellations have expanded waiting lists and new patients continue to be added. Operations cancelled early in the pandemic had benefits in:

  • Protecting patients from possible infection with COVID-19 in hospital
  • Preserving precious personal protective equipment
  • Releasing ventilators, ward and critical care beds for emergency care of COVID-19 patients
  • Releasing anaesthetists, theatre staff and surgeons for redeployment to other departments

Aim: To estimate the expected number of cancelled operations worldwide in the peak 12 weeks of COVID-19 pandemic disruption.

Impact: This evidence can be used to assist healthcare providers plan and create strategies for surgical services in the pandemic recovery period.

Strategy: We invited surgeons from hospitals worldwide to give expert estimates of the proportions of planned (elective) surgery that would be cancelled in the peak 12 weeks of the pandemic. 359 hospitals in 71 countries took part. Data was analysed using the usual numbers of operations per country, to calculate total expected cancellations by country and specialty.


What did the study find?

  • Estimates for proportions of cancelled surgery were highest for benign (non-progressive or non-cancerous) conditions (71-87% cancelled).
  • The proportion of cancelled cancer surgery was lowest in the most developed countries. There was a wide range in rate of cancer surgery cancellations, (23-77%).
  • Planned obstetric operations were cancelled in 17-38%.

What does that mean in real numbers?

  • Approximately 28.4 million operations were cancelled in the peak 12 weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic, that is 2.4 million per week.
  • In 11 countries, >50,000 operations were cancelled per week.
  • Of the cancellations, we estimate:
    • >90%, 25.6million were for benign disease
    • 8%, 2.3million were for cancer
    • 1.6%, 0.4million were for obstetrics.
  • Orthopaedic surgery was most frequently cancelled.
  • Results were broken down to country-level. The most cancellations were predicted in Europe and Central Asia where there is normally higher surgical activity. The least in Sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Estimates for least to worst case disruption reported 20-44million cancellations.

What will this mean going forward?

If surgical services increased activity by 20% above pre-pandemic levels they would take 45 weeks (>10 months) to clear the backlog of operations.

How accurate are these estimates?

Surgeons in countries that had not yet reached pandemic peak reported expected proportions of cancelled surgery.

Results are presented with best and worst case disruption scenarios.
This study uses published estimates of the number of operations that take place per country if that country does not publish data.

If regional outbreaks last longer or shorter than 12 weeks, estimates may not match local disruption but can be adjusted to aid recovery planning.

Conclusion: To clear growing waiting lists for surgery, there will need to be significant government investment. For example, in the UK the operation backlog would cost >£2billion to clear (based on £4000 per operation).
While patients await surgery, they risk worsening disease. This may result in patients being unable to work, which would further increase the costs of the pandemic to society.
If future COVID-19 outbreaks occur, surgical services should be ready to continue to operate in specifically designed environments to protect patients from COVID-19.
Research to identify systems to perform surgery safely despite the pandemic could help minimise future cancellations and reduce the impact on population health.

Planning for the Future

The CovidSurg Cancer study has assessed the safety of surgery for all types of cancer in different hospital environments during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results will shortly be published.

A study looking at the impact of COVID-19 on the surgical workforce so services can be better prepared for any future outbreaks is also soon to be published.

Thank you Video

This video contains the early results from CovidSurg data and thanks our funders.

If you are interested in watching more detailed results you can watch the CovidSurg webinars here.

More Details

This work is dedicated to every patient we lost, but whose data has made research possible.
And second, to the healthcare workers who strived to save those patients but who were lost too.

These summaries have been prepared by a team of colleagues including Lesley Booth, Chetan Khatri, Karolin Kroese and Elizabeth Li.
The Research Explained venture has been led by Mary Venn and all work has been approved by our Patient Advisory Group.

Funding: The CovidSurg publications were funded by a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Global Health Research Unit Grant (NIHR 16.136.79) using UK aid from the UK Government to support global health research; Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland; Bowel & Cancer Research; Bowel Disease Research Foundation; Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons; British Association of Surgical Oncology; British Gynaecological Cancer Society; European Society of Coloproctology; NIHR Academy; Sarcoma UK; Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland; Yorkshire Cancer Research. The funders had no role in study design, data collection, analysis and interpretation, or writing of the reports.

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